![]() 2021), we try to identify the least costly instrument that incentivizes the COVID-19 vaccine developer to build sufficient capacity to meet global demand. Building upon our earlier work (Kazaz et al. While it is a salient ideological debate with a long list of pros and cons, we focus in this note on the problem of incentivizing the vaccine developer to expand manufacturing capacity, either in-house, by adding more contract manufacturing sites, or through manufacturing partnerships with other manufacturers. ![]() ![]() Some discussions focus on capacity expansion through the vaccine developers sharing intellectual property (IP) and manufacturing know-how, so that as many companies globally can manufacture COVID-19 vaccines (Prabhala et al. (2021) estimate that installed capacity for 3 billion annual vaccine courses leads to a global benefit of $17.4 trillion, making it vital from both a health and an economic perspective to build sufficient manufacturing capacity for COVID-19 vaccines. There is continuing debate about how to create sufficient capacity of specific vaccine platforms such as mRNA which some argue are more versatile for future preparedness efforts (Moore and Offit 2021, Wilfredo et al. There is a need to expand the manufacturing capacity for COVID-19 vaccines. However, the total manufacturing capacity is insufficient for accelerated immunization across countries globally in the short-term (e.g., next six months) and is not sufficient in a disaggregate sense, i.e., for each individual vaccine type. The available global production capacity may be sufficient in aggregate across all vaccine manufacturing platforms over an 18- to 24-month window. But to vaccinate the global population as quickly as possible requires additional production capacity. Safe and efficacious vaccines are our best tools for defeating COVID-19, and an unprecedented research and development effort has led to 12 vaccines being approved for full, emergency, or limited use, globally.
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